I don't like Peyton Manning. I have respect for his ability, both on the field and as an actor in commercials, but both him and his brother have cause the New England Patriots some hard times as of late. I don't mind Flacco and the Ravens for some reason, even though they knocked the Pats out last year... it's just that smug little look on Peyton's face. Ask Bill Simmons, he knows what I'm talking about. However, despite this dislike, I do believe the Colts and Manning are one of the most talented teams out there. Peyton lead the Colts to a fantastic season in the first year in a while without Tony Dungy on the sidelines. Jim Caldwell seemed to fill in quite nicely and I see big things for the future of the Colts even without Dungy. So... here is how I see the AFC South shaping up.
1. Indianapolis Colts 15-1
2. Houston Texans 9-7
3. Tennessee Titans 8-8
4. Jacksonville Jaguars 6-10
Sure it's boring saying that Indy is going to have another near-perfect season, only losing a couple of games, but hasn't Manning proved yet that that's highly possible year in and year out. He's still got Reggie Wayne to catch the ball, an aging Addai might be replaced by the young Donald Brown to keep the ball moving, and the defense puts up stops when it needs to, which is not even a worry really since Peyton can get the ball and perform a two-minute drill at any point in the game. Just look at their game against the Dolphins last year in which they won 27-23. The Colts had possession of the ball for just 14:58 (compared to Miami's 45:07), but still managed to win the game, achieving an offensive DVOA (if you read Football Outsiders) of 98%! An incredible number. The Colts are simply one of those teams that has what it takes to win.
There may be another team from the AFC South making the postseason this year, and I think that team could be the Houston Texans. That is, if they can ride on the momentum of last year, improving steadily as the season went on, and if they don't miss defensive star Brian Cushing too much through the first four games. They have a good quarterback though (Matt Schaub), a defined #1 wide receiver (Andre Johnson), and have made improvements at running back (Arian Foster will likely fill in for the injured rookie Ben Tate who was supposed to replace Steve Slaton. Yep). There are definitely some question marks in Houston, and it'll be a challenge to make the playoffs in the AFC with so many other teams fighting for a spot, but if the Jets falter, or the Steelers miss Big Ben a bit too much, there is a chance at a wild card spot.
I don't see Chris Johnson having as amazing a year again. It was phenomenal to watch him play last year, tons of long breaks and exciting rushes for touchdowns, but don't you think every other team in the NFL spent the summer watching tapes figuring out how to stop the guy? After all, what else do the Titans have? Vince Young is shaky at best and has a receiving core that lacks any sort of big name. Nate Washington, Kenny Britt, Justin Gage... Young relied on these guys to win games in their 8-2 stretch to finish the season and fall just short of the playoffs. Are these really some guys you want to bank a whole season on? I guess the defense is there and Johnson should have another great year even if he doesn't run for 2000 yards. Hell, he could be another Barry Sanders, a great boom and bust running back who will destroy the opposition for years. The Titans did draft him in the first round cause they saw something, maybe he is their ticket to the playoffs.
I'm not sure what's going to happen in Jacksonville this year. Maurice Jones-Drew may be injured, their defense stinks, and they can't seem to get anyone to go to the games. I really thought they were going to draft Tim Tebow, the Florida hero, just to boost ticket sales, but they stuck with Garrard and instead drafted from way off the board, selecting defensive tackle Alualu out of California with the number ten pick. It sure was fun to watch Tebow slip to Denver, which also made everyone watching the draft do a double-take, almost as much as the Alualu pick. The problem is Jacksonville needs help, and lots of it. If they ever want to become better than a middle-ground, 8-8 team, they have to either make big moves to bring in players, or lose players and rebuild. Unfortunately for the Jaguars neither of these options look to be looming, and expect another losing season in 2010 while they figure out how to keep the team in Florida.
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