Supreme takes on football

Supreme/Wilson mini football available at Nomad tomorrow morning. Yeah, that's my shit.

NFL Predictions Part VIII: AFC West

It could be a year of change in the AFC West. On the way out are two perennial playoff contenders and rising is a team who has been at the bottom the past few years. One thing is for sure, the west is not the place to be a football fan right now. Both the NFC and the AFC West are arguably the two weakest divisions in football. Wait a minute... no argument. So how is the AFC West gonna turn out, well maybe a little like this.

1. San Diego Chargers 10-6
2. Kansas City Chiefs 7-9
3. Denver Broncos 5-11
4. Oakland Raiders 3-13

The Chargers may be able to keep themselves above water a little while longer before they start losing their grip. LT is out and a new running back has a lot on his shoulders. The Chargers drafted Ryan Mathews out of Fresno State to replace Tomlinson and they better hope he succeeds, especially for the first few games. Dealing with a suspension to Vincent Jackson, Philip Rivers is at a loss for his prime receiver. Floyd will hopefully step up and catch some balls, but there is definitely gonna be a need for some decent runs. After all, by beefing up their offense in the draft they forgot to address their blaring problem at defense. I still see the Chargers making the playoffs in a weak West division.

NFL Predictions Part VII: AFC South

I don't like Peyton Manning. I have respect for his ability, both on the field and as an actor in commercials, but both him and his brother have cause the New England Patriots some hard times as of late. I don't mind Flacco and the Ravens for some reason, even though they knocked the Pats out last year... it's just that smug little look on Peyton's face. Ask Bill Simmons, he knows what I'm talking about. However, despite this dislike, I do believe the Colts and Manning are one of the most talented teams out there. Peyton lead the Colts to a fantastic season in the first year in a while without Tony Dungy on the sidelines. Jim Caldwell seemed to fill in quite nicely and I see big things for the future of the Colts even without Dungy. So... here is how I see the AFC South shaping up.

1. Indianapolis Colts 15-1
2. Houston Texans 9-7
3. Tennessee Titans 8-8
4. Jacksonville Jaguars 6-10

Sure it's boring saying that Indy is going to have another near-perfect season, only losing a couple of games, but hasn't Manning proved yet that that's highly possible year in and year out. He's still got Reggie Wayne to catch the ball, an aging Addai might be replaced by the young Donald Brown to keep the ball moving, and the defense puts up stops when it needs to, which is not even a worry really since Peyton can get the ball and perform a two-minute drill at any point in the game. Just look at their game against the Dolphins last year in which they won 27-23. The Colts had possession of the ball for just 14:58 (compared to Miami's 45:07), but still managed to win the game, achieving an offensive DVOA (if you read Football Outsiders) of 98%! An incredible number. The Colts are simply one of those teams that has what it takes to win.

NFL Predictions Part VI: AFC North

So it all starts tomorrow and after this I only have two divisions left, including one which I believe will have a Super Bowl XLV champ, and the other a pinnacle of mediocrity and disappointment. But until then I have the AFC North, which has two teams which I believe are capable of making a push for the Lombardi trophy. One of those teams made it to the AFC Championship last year, the other one the Super Bowl the previous year. Both are poised to make moves and this is how I see the AFC North ending up.

1. Baltimore Ravens 11-5
2. Pittsburgh Steelers 10-6
3. Cincinnati Bengals 8-8
4. Cleveland Browns 4-12

The Ravens had a hell of a year last year, both offensively and defensively. They won games when it counted, but also managed to lose them too. They won by huge margins, and lost close games on bad mistakes, including several errors to the Indianapolis Colts in the AFC Championship. Everyone gets bounces and Baltimore was on the wrong end of a lot of them in 2009. They lacked consistency, the ability to get big points in the red zone, and a higher tier wide receiver for Flacco to throw at. Well, now Flacco is a year more experienced and the Ravens have picked up both Anquan Boldin and TJ Houshmandzadeh. Will this solve a few problems? I think so; and if it does look for the Ravens to be back in the postseason again this season.

NFL Predictions Part V: AFC East

I like my Pats' chances this year. Brady is healthy again, and I doubt their defense is going to have as sloppy a year as 2009. For Belichick, the defense was not as expected. Hopefully it was one of those transitional years and New England will be back on top of the AFC East, at least hopefully for me. They will have some tough competition though and everyone is definitely wondering what Mark Sanchez will do in his sophomore year. I drafted him in my fantasy football pool last year with my last pick overall and was pleasantly rewarded with a decent backup QB near the end of the seaosn. More importantly though is how the Jets' defense will compare to last year's stellar effort. We shall see, and I see the AFC East ending up something like this:

1. New England Patriots 13-3
2. NY Jets 9-7
3. Miami Dolphins 8-8
4. Buffalo Bills 4-12

Like I said, I really think New England will have their shit together on defense this year. Not only that but I believe the offensive linemen may have taken a year to mature and will also improve in 2010. Belichick always has an ability to find talent in the draft at all spots and that's why this Patriots team has been somehwat of a dynasty over the past decade. They should continue on this season, getting right back on track after an embarrassing loss to the Ravens in the playoffs last year. The only problem is, they might have problems with Baltimore again in the playoffs, and I think they're going to have an even bigger problem facing the Colts and Peyton again, which I'm sure will be a highly possible postseason scenario. For now though, look for the Pats' offense to remain one of the best in the league and have your fingers crossed that the defense can improve.

NFL Predictions Part IV: NFC West

I just couldn't help but post a pic of Glen Coffee, who after a lengthy career with the 49ers totaling 14 games, has retired from football at the old age of 23. So long Coffee, it was a wonderful time. The loss shouldn't be too burdening for the 49ers however, who's schedule this season is the 25th hardest in the league, and who are poised to win the NFC West now that the Cardinals have lost Warner and will be relying on Derek Anderson to throw the ball to Fitzgerald and co. By how much will they win the division? Here's my look at the NFC West.

1. San Francisco 49ers 11-5
2. Arizona Cardinals 7-9
3. Seattle Seahawks 5-11
4. St. Louis Rams 2-14

So maybe the 49ers don't win 11 games, highly possible, I could be overshooting that number by a win or two, but the point is that the 49ers have one of those schedules that might allow them to do it. Now that the Cardinals' offense has taken a huge hit, two extra wins against Arizona are highly possible. San Fran could in fact easily sweep their divisional games, going 6-0 in the NFC West, regardless of matches against other teams. Their defense improved massively last year, one of the top 3 in the NFL, and their offense kept getting better as 2009 moved along. I mean, it still all comes down to whether Alex Smith is ready to become the franchise QB or not, but this is definitely the season for San Fran to make moves. They have to do it now before the Rams start getting better.

NFL Predictions Part III: NFC South

Matt Ryan. That's right, Matt Ryan. It seems like only yesterday a hell-bent New Orleans team took over the reigns as NFC South champs, led by Drew Brees and his all-over-the-field, mutli-receiver attack. Well it should be a short lived life at the top for Brees and company. This young Atlanta team is ready to make moves and has the playoffs in sight this season, even if it is only wildcard weekend this year. Here's what I see in the NFC South:

1. New Orleans Saints 11-5
2. Atlanta Falcons 11-5
3. Carolina Panthers 6-10
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3-13

The Saints put up amazing numbers last year, scoring 510 points over the course of the season, best in the league and 40 points ahead of second place Minnesota, but the big difference last year was their defense. They managed to score 5 touchdowns and accumulate 652 yards off interceptions alone. This statistic alone should raise some eyebrows as something like this is quite difficult to repeat. I still see them winning a bunch of games based on the strength of Drew Brees and his receiving core, but they will have a tough battle for the NFC South title with Atlanta getting better each year. At 11-5 I can still see them making the playoffs, ousting a Dallas team that is declining at a much faster rate, but to repeat as Super Bowl champs? Unlikely.

NFL Predictions Part II: NFC North

While Favre Watch 2010 managed to steal some of the spotlight away from the NBA/WWE free agency extravaganza and its eventual hatred (kinda like when Richard won Survivor), a lot of people were asking the same question: 'what will happen to the NFC North without Brett?' Well, we won't have to answer that question this year as Favre returns to the Vikings for another two games against his beloved Packers. At least for Green Bay fans this may turn out to be sweet revenge as Aaron Rodgers is poised to be this year's top quarterback (yep, over Drew Brees) and the Pack seem bound for the playoffs yet again and, dare I say, Super Bowl XLV.  Here's how I see the NFC North finishing up in a Favrian world.

1. Green Bay Packers 13-3
2. Minnesota Vikings 10-6
3. Chicago Bears 6-10
4. Detroit Lions 2-14

I really think Aaron Rodgers has the tools to lead Green Bay to a great season this year. Greg Jennings had a bit of an off year last year, where aged veteran Donald Driver seemed to pick up the slack when necessary, but don't expect his numbers to be that low again. Jennings came up big several times in 2009, including catching for 130 yards in the highest scoring postseason game of all time. I also see young tight end Jarmichael Finley, a third round draft pick from 2008, becoming a key target for Rodgers. The main issue will be keeping some of its defensive momentum from 2009. I don't see a repeat of the numbers they put up last year, but if they maintain near those levels, the offense should provide the balance that delivers a thirteen win team.

NFL Predictions Part I: NFC East

As I said at the end of the Super Bowl last year, more than a little bit inebriated, "Peyton is going to go for blood next year, Colts over Packers in 2011." I don't know if those were the exact words, but they get the point across: Indianapolis will beat Green Bay in Super Bowl XLV. What will happen elsewhere? Well I'm not quite sure, but I'll try my best this week by outlining how I think each division will turn out. Here goes, starting with the NFC East.

1. Philadelphia Eagles 11-5
2. Dallas Cowboys 10-6
3. Washington Redskins 9-7
4. NY Giants 8-8

OK, so having the Eagles place first in the NFC East might be putting too much faith in Kolb, but really, a lot of the pieces are already in place for Kolb to step into McNabb's shoes and continue the Eagles' postseason adventures. I'm not sure how far this team will make it under the helm of Kolb, but with a receiving core that includes DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin, he should be able to make out just fine. Sure they lost Westbrook, who had minimal carries last year anyway, but the addition of Mike Bell should fill in their goal-line gap quite nicely. Also, with a defense that will be building on a solid season in 2009, with the addition of defensive end Brandon Graham and safety Nate Allen, the Eagles seem to have somewhat covered their asses in key areas of poor performance last year. Graham was named co-MVP for the Big Ten conference in 2009 and was a finalist for the FBS Hendricks Award, losing out to Jerry Hughes of TCU. Allen should also fit in quite nicely in a team in need of a decent secondary. Any way you look at it, the Eagles should come out on top of McNabb's new team.

This Particular Saturday

So it's the first big day of college football and a lot of people have done a little research and are eager to get the season started, but there is just so much to watch that I'm here to break it down a bit. And don't forget that Monday night has one of the biggest matchups not only of opening weekend, but of the season! Boise State at Virginia Tech is the Broncos chance to prove that they're worthy of a chance at the National Championship, going up against the Hokies and Tyrod Taylor. Should be the most exciting and meaningful game of the weekend, so enjoy watching that on your Labour Day holiday. As for today, here are ten games to keep on hand.


Weber State @ Boston College

What better way to start a new season than a new start? Mark Herzlich, the linebaker who won the ACC defensive player of the year award in 2008, is back from a year away battling with bone cancer and is eager to go. It is still to be seen whether he will be back on the field after Boston College's defense remained strong throughout the season last year, but just having him on the sidelines should be inspiration enough and worth watching.

pick: Boston College by 20

Jacksonville State @ Ole Miss

Speaking of absent players, former Oregon quarterback Jeremiah Masoli, who was kicked off the team last year for various off-field infractions including a (oh no!) marijuana possession charge, will be back on the field in a Rebels (how suiting) uniform this fall. He missed the entirety of spring practices for either team due to the legal trouble, but has been cleared and is ready to start behind center for Ole Miss. Let's just see how his teammates react to his insertion and whether he can recapture some of the spark he had in Oregon.

pick: Ole Miss by 34

Purdue @ Notre Dame

Charlie Weis is out, and so is Golden Tate and Jimmy Clausen, but it's not that much of a fresh start for new head coach Brian Kelly. Unfortunately most of the returning players are part of the horrendous defense that the Fighting Irish had on the field last year. Even if Kelly is able to install his spread offense with the new QB, Dayne Crist, Purdue is by no means an easy way to start the year. Lucky for Notre Dame, running back Ralph Bolden might be missing from action, which might give Notre Dame the slight edge.

pick: Notre Dame by 4

Bobblehead Sabermetrics

Back in the Saddle

Football Season is back! And so am I for that matter. I've been absent for awhile but I've had a lot on my plate and really... no football to talk about. It has been a busy offseason, especially with all the rumours of realignment in the NCAA and the various murmurs surrounding Brett Favre's retirement (no not yet), but let's face it, the football offseason was somewhat overshadowed by a ridiculous NBA free agent extravaganza that was practically a shitty reality television show.  But that's all over now and football is back, starting with some college games tonight and leading into the big full day on Saturday. But let's quickly talk about some of the games to watch tonight.

Hampton @ Cent. Michigan

OK, so not the craziest game to start out with, but Central Michigan (12-2 last year) are going to have some eyes on them now that Dan LeFevour has split for the Chicago Bears, going in the sixth round. Losing the quarterback with the most total touchdowns in NCAA history might be tough for this MAC team, especially when facing three FBS teams on the road this year. They will have some other guys returning, particularly on offense, but their defense will have to improve and they'll have to find someone to replace LeFevour if they have any hope of returning to a bowl this year. This game is step #1.

Marshall @ Ohio State (2)

This should be a proverbial cakewalk for the #2 seeded Ohio State and a good chance for all of us to see Terrelle Pryor in action for the first time this year. The Buckeyes have some positions to fill, especially on the defensive line, and this game should give an idea of how well those shoes are filled. Ohio State definitely has a chance at winning the Big 10 this year, and might even have a chance at a national title if they manage to keep their season flawless, especially with three tough games coming at the end of the season against conference opponents. All eyes will definitely be on Pryor in the Big 10 this year, and if he can limit his mistakes Ohio State should be the team to beat.