Wednesday, December 30, 2009

NFL Picks Last Week!




So I missed submitting my picks for last week and went a solid 8-8. Not bad seeing as I put barely any thought into my choices and did them on the bus on the way to an Xmas party. One noteworthy welcome surprise from the past week though, the Jets are now in the playoff picture for real; maybe Sanchez is warming up to the cold weather, absolutely no pun intended whatsoever. Well, it'll be interesting to see what he does this week when a simple win against a Bengals team who have already clinched a playoff spot will get the Jets into the postseason. Should be a lot of fun this week in the AFC.

Colts (-2.5) over Bills

Sure Indy lost to the Jets last week ending their perfect season, but benching all the starters in the third quarter was a decision based on winning a Superbowl, and no team wants to head into the playoffs rusty. Despite risk of injury, the Colts should leave their starters in a little longer to get some playing time before the postseason, and should rack up an insurmountable lead over a Bills team that is only playing for a draft position.

Jaguars (+1.5) over Browns

I said a couple weeks ago that the Jags were overrated and the Browns were playing better than their record showed, but Jacksonville still has a lot in their arsenal and still has a shot at the playoffs. The only thing I really see giving Cleveland the edge is the homefield, but I really think Vegas is riding a wave in this line, knowing that people will pick the Browns if the line was any lower. I like Cleveland, but honestly think the Jags will take this one.

Bears (-3.5) over Lions

Chicago took advantage of a stumbling Minnesota team last week and it could be just the confidence they need to get their defense back in check for the last game of the season. At least the lions won two games this season.

49ers (-7.5) over Rams

The only team the Rams beat all season was the Lions, that's pretty sad. San Fran had a chance at the playoffs and just narrowly missed catching up to the Cardinals. They're clearly a better team and I'd honestly give them 10 points over St. Louis at this point, but 7.5 is just fine.

Steelers (-2.5) over Dolphins

Too little too late it would seem, but Pittsburgh still has something to prove as defending Superbowl champs. With a miniscule chance at a playoff spot and two key wins against Green Bay and Baltimore, the Steelers have a new life. Combine that with one of the best rush defenses in the game, and Miami is going to have a tough team running a wildcat offense against this Steeler squad.

Vikings (-8.5) over Giants

This one is a tough call. The Giants shit the bed and eliminated themselves from playoff contention, and the Vikings seem to have lost that team chemistry that has made them dominant the whole season. Chalk that up to a disagreement between Favre and Childress if you will, but this team needs to get its mojo back. Well, that is exactly what I see happening against this New York team. The Vikings are still a strong team with a solid attack and a strong defense. They'll be in good shape for the playoffs, especially if they can crush the Giants in this final week.

Falcons (-2.5) over Bucanneers

Ryan is back, Turner is back, and Atlanta has some swagger. Sure the Bucs have won the last two, including an upset over New Orleans, but the Saints weren't really playing their hearts out or anything last week. The Falcons still have a decent team, even if it was slightly overrated at the beginning of the season, and still have the ability to beat a terrible Tampa Bay team. The question is whether the Bucs will come in riding a high from the past two weeks. The Falcons will have to put up some key stops early to quell the momentum.

Saints (+2.5) over Panthers

The Panthers have been proving troublesome lately and looking like the team everyone thought was going to have a stellar season, back before they actually started playing. The Saints on the other hand have lost two straight and are starting to look a little weak. That being said, I would still put New Orleans as the favorites in this game, but again Vegas knows people will be betting on Carolina and have evened it out a little by giving them two and a half points. could go either way with the Panthers playing at home, but I like the Saints in this one; losing three straight to finish the season doesn't seem like an option for Brees.

Patriots (+7.5) over Texans

Houston should put up a good fight in search of a playoff spot, but Belichick's inability to let up for even two seconds should make this a rather close game. Also, the Texans' constant urge to blow leads should make this one of those games that goes down to the wire. It should end up with either a Pats win or a Houston win by less than a touchdown.

Cowboys (-2.5) over Eagles

This one is way too close to call, and I'm not putting money on either team taking the NFC North title, but if i had to pick, I'd give the edge to the Cowboys at home.

Cardinals (-3.5) over Packers

I like the Packers a lot and I really seeing them causing some problems in the playoffs, but after solidifying themselves a place in the postseason I can see them settling back a little. Arizona could take advantage of this with their wide receiving core and effortlessly score a few touchdowns to give themselves a shot at a first round bye.

Redskins (+4.5) over Chargers

The Chargers have already clinched a first round bye and I can see them taking it a bit easy against the Redskins. With Washington's tough defense this could lead to a low scoring affair. Either way I see the Redskins making a game of this and the Chargers coming out soft.

Titans (-4.5) over Seahawks

Seattle hasn't done anything lately, and although the Titans' quest for a comeback and the playoffs was ruined by the Colts and subsequently the Chargers, they still have a lot to be happy about looking towards next season. Seattle needs to rebuild and I don't think they're going to be fighting too hard for a worse position in a deep draft.

Raiders (+10.5) over Ravens

As much as I like the Ravens to come out on top in this game and make the playoffs, Oakland has been causing some problems lately for a lot of teams. Baltimore will take this, but it should come as close as a touchdown or a field goal and I'll be biting my nails the entire time...

Broncos (-12.5) over Chiefs

The Chiefs want a top pick next year and with Washington and Cleveland both with 4 wins, they'll be happy with just 3 on the season and no more. Denver needs this one for any hope of a playoff spot after a terrible tumble the second half of the season, and I think they're going to show no mercy. This should be a blowout.

Bengals (+9.5) over Jets

A lot of people are putting a lot of faith in the Jets after beating Indy, but they have to remember that Cincinnati has been posting wins all season and should be able to keep this one within the 9.5, based on their defense alone.

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